Global wine production has dropped significantly, reaching its lowest level since 1961, with new data from the International Organisation of Vine and Wine (OIV) indicating a forecast of just 231 million hectoliters for 2024. This represents a 2% decrease from the already low figures of 2023 and a 13% decline compared to the average production over the past decade.
Giorgio Delgrosso, head of statistics at the OIV, emphasized that adverse weather conditions, including frosts, heavy rains, and droughts, have greatly impacted the vineyards. He noted, "To find a smaller vintage than 2024, we must go back to 1961."
Southern Hemisphere Declines
The situation in the Southern Hemisphere is particularly dire, with wine production estimated at 46 million hectoliters in 2024, down 2% from 2023 and 12% below the five-year average—marking the lowest output in two decades. Notably, Argentina has bucked the trend, experiencing a 23% increase to 10.9 million hectoliters. In contrast, Australia, while seeing a volume increase of 5% to 10.2 million hectoliters, remains 16% below its five-year average due to ongoing issues with excessive rainfall.
Chile faced a 15% year-on-year production drop to 9.3 million hectoliters, primarily due to challenges posed by a cool spring and drought. South Africa’s production is projected at 8.8 million hectoliters, reflecting a 5% decrease as severe flooding and disease outbreaks impacted various wine regions. New Zealand and Brazil also experienced declines driven by unfavorable weather.
Northern Hemisphere Forecast
Data from the Northern Hemisphere harvest reveals significant anticipated declines. In the European Union, production in 2024 is expected to fall 11% below the five-year average, amounting to just 139 million hectoliters. This is likely to mark the lowest production level of the century.
Italy has reclaimed its position as the largest wine producer globally, with an estimated output of 41 million hectoliters in 2024—a 7% increase from the previous year, though still down 13% from the five-year average. France, conversely, saw a 23% plunge in production to 36.9 million hectoliters, the lowest since 2017, largely due to continuous rain and disease issues throughout the growing season.
Spain expects to produce 33.6 million hectoliters, marking an 18% increase from last year, yet still slightly below average. Other countries in Europe, including Germany, Portugal, Austria, and Switzerland, are forecasting declines, while Hungary, Georgia, and Greece expect stronger performances.
The United States, the fourth-largest wine producer, is forecasted to produce 23.6 million hectoliters—a 3% decrease from the prior year, in line with typical production levels.
The Bigger Picture: Production vs. Demand
Amidst this decline in production, there may be a silver lining: it could help resolve the oversupply crisis that has been plaguing the global wine industry, where production previously surpassed demand by 10% in 2023. While prices have suffered, the first half of 2024 has seen a 2.7% increase in global wine trade volume, signaling potential recovery in the market.
Delgrosso highlighted the changing dynamics as producers’ inventories in Italy and Spain fell significantly by the end of July 2024, suggesting a more favorable alignment between supply and demand in certain regions.
OIV’s director general, John Barker, reflected on the resilience of the wine sector, which has navigated various crises over the last century. He emphasized the importance of long-term thinking in light of current challenges, particularly regarding sustainability and climate change, which continue to exert a toll on production consistency.